• Question: Do you belive the current population size is sustainable without a decrease in birth rate? Or a increase in mortality rate?

    Asked by NIP Xist to Cristiane, Nicki, Nikolai, Richard, Samuel on 10 Mar 2015.
    • Photo: Richard Simons

      Richard Simons answered on 10 Mar 2015:

      There’s a lot of evidence that the global population is going to continue to increase for a few decades more, but fortunately, it’s predicted to start slowing down soon.
      The main driving force for the rapid growth that we’re seeing is the decrease in child mortality in developing countries; however, the birth rate in these countries is still quite high.
      There is good news though, the high birth rates will decrease. That’s a good thing because high birth rates are strongly linked to poverty and high child mortality. The decrease in birth rate will be the result of fewer people living in poverty and a surge in development in some of the poorest countries.

      Jump to “Myth Three”
      http://www.gatesfoundation.org/Who-We-Are/Resources-and-Media/Annual-Letters-List/Annual-Letter-2014

      Just want a quick overview?:

    • Photo: Samuel Ellis

      Samuel Ellis answered on 10 Mar 2015:

      To expand on something Richard mentioned, birth rate and child mortality are very linked. In some of the poorest parts of the world one of the main reasons families have so many children is because they sadly know there is a high chance some of them will die before growing up. As medicine there is improving, birth rates will drop as parents will be more confident of their children surviving to adulthood. Other factors such as improving knowledge of contraception will also likely play a part.

    • Photo: Nikolai Adamski

      Nikolai Adamski answered on 10 Mar 2015:

      The growth of the world population is already flattening (although it’s still high). We as a species need to come up eventually with an agreement on how we control the size of the population. A good first step is education of women in poor countries. Women are the lynchpin of families, often working on farms and thus producing most of the income/food for the family, but also (of course) giving birth to a number of children. Also, traditionally, the children would take care of their elder parents, so having many children meant better care for the parents later on. Studies have shown that education is correlated with a decrease in birth rate, as education usually means better income (plus the knowledge of contraception, i.e. avoid getting pregnant). Better income means you need less people to feed a family/take care of your old mum and dad.
      As Richard mentions, the healthcare is getting better in many poor countries, meaning that more children survive their childhood and need feeding.
      As I’ve said at the start, we need to come up with a solution that is fair. We don’t want or need some sort of regime that decides who can live and who has to die for the “greater good”. That will hopefully stay Science-Fiction.
      cheers
      nikolai

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